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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still